As sustainable fuels become a global priority, companies across forestry and agriculture are exploring new ways to turn waste and raw materials into high-value energy. One of the clearest signals of this shift is the rise of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). What began as a promising use for forestry residues is now evolving into a larger opportunity for agriculture-driven economies like Brazil, where regulatory pressure is creating new demand for SAF feedstocks and production at scale.

Understanding sustainable aviation fuel

SAF is derived from renewable resources such as vegetable oils, waste oils, fats, sugar and cereal crops, municipal solid waste, wood and agricultural residues, and even carbon captured from the air. These diverse feedstocks undergo specialized processing pathways to produce a fuel that mirrors the properties of conventional jet fuel, enabling seamless integration into existing aircraft and infrastructure. Importantly, SAF can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to fossil-based jet fuels.

SAF Production pathways & technology trailblazers

There’s no single way to produce sustainable aviation fuel. Depending on the feedstock, infrastructure, and regulatory environment, different technologies are emerging to meet the growing demand. Some rely on agricultural inputs, forestry waste or municipal solids, others on Co2 and H2. Each pathway brings different benefits and limitations, and understanding them is key for players across the value chain, from suppliers to fuel producers.

Most advanced and approved SAF technologies (ICAO, DOE):

• HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids): The most widely used and commercially viable SAF pathway. It refines vegetable oils, waste oils, or fats using hydrogen. Companies like Chevron, eni, Shell, Exxon, Total, and BP are leveraging their existing refineries for HEFA-based SAF production. However, its growth is limited by the availability of waste oils and fats.
• ATJ (Alcohol-to-Jet): Converts sugars and cereals into alcohol, which is then refined into jet fuel. Companies such as Aemetis, TotalEnergies, and Alder Renewables are scaling up this technology, but high costs and variable carbon intensity remain challenges.
• FT-SPK (Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene): Uses gasification to convert biomass or municipal solid waste into SAF. LanzaJet is leading this technology with projects in the US, UK, Japan, and Australia. While promising, FT-SPK requires significant capital investment and is energy-intensive.
• PTL (Power-to-Liquid): The most advanced but also the most expensive SAF pathway, PTL creates synthetic jet fuel using renewable electricity, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen. Startups like Twelve, Velocys, Dimensional Energy, Ineratec, and Infinium are working on pilot projects, with the hope that costs will decrease as technology matures.

In regions like the US and Europe, early SAF efforts often relied on forestry residues(sawdust, bark, and pulping byproducts) as feedstock. Companies like UPM and Strategic Biofuels have shown that forestry waste can fuel commercial SAF production. In markets like Brazil, however, where forestry operations often do not produce residues, the focus is shifting toward agricultural feedstocks to meet scale.

Market constraints are slowing down scale

Despite the momentum around SAF, scaling production remains a challenge. Feedstock supply, infrastructure costs, and price competitiveness all play a role in limiting how fast the market can grow (Rystad Energy).

HEFA remains the most commercially viable pathway today, thanks to existing refining infrastructure. But its reliance on waste oils and fats puts a cap on how far it can scale. ATJ faces similar issues—its agricultural feedstocks are more abundant but still finite, and cost variability remains a barrier.

FT-SPK and PTL are attracting growing interest for their long-term potential, especially because of their flexibility in feedstock and superior climate performance. But both require significant capital investment and new infrastructure, making them harder to deploy at scale in the short term.

Across all pathways, price remains a sticking point. SAF is still more expensive than fossil-based jet fuel, and cost parity is unlikely without sustained policy support. Tax incentives, subsidies, and emissions mandates are key to maintaining momentum and unlocking broader adoption.

While HEFA dominates the market today, the most significant advancements are expected to come from ATJ, FT-SPK, and PTL as technologies mature and early projects move into commercial phases.

SAF costs and learning curve

SAF remains significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel, making government incentives essential for market growth. HEFA is currently the most affordable option due to existing refining infrastructure, but all SAF pathways are expected to see cost reductions as technology improves and production scales up. PTL holds the greatest potential for cost declines, though it still requires substantial innovation and investment.

Despite these advancements, SAF is unlikely to match fossil jet fuel prices without continued policy support, such as tax credits and subsidies.

SAF Producers and Offtakers

Airlines worldwide are committing to SAF, with offtake agreements totaling 43 million tonnes per year (ICAO). US airlines are leading adoption, followed by German, French, and Dutch carriers. Key SAF producers include Gevo, Alder Fuels, Cemvita, USA BioEnergy, Neste, DG Fuels, Raven, and Aemetis. Fulcrum, once a major player, declared bankruptcy in 2024, underscoring the financial risks in the industry.

Many SAF producers originate from the biofuels sector, while oil companies use existing infrastructure to expand into SAF production. Offtake agreements peaked in 2022 but continue to be signed in 2023 and 2024, reflecting sustained industry commitment.

Emerging SAF technology developers

‍

‍

Cemvita: A biotechnology firm specializing in converting waste carbon sources into sustainable oils suitable for HEFA-based SAF production. By utilizing waste carbon and engineered microbes, Cemvita addresses feedstock limitations, offering a sustainable alternative to traditional oils without the extensive land and water use associated with conventional agriculture. ​

Blue Biofuels: An ATJ cleantech company delivering scalable, efficient, and low-cost technology to convert plant materials into biofuels and sustainable aviation fuels. Their patented Cellulose-to-Sugar (CTS) process enables the use of abundant, non-food biomass, addressing feedstock limitations associated with ATJ pathways. 

OXCCU: A leader in carbon-to-value innovation, OXCCU has developed a one-step catalytic process that directly converts CO₂ and hydrogen into sustainable aviation fuel. This approach simplifies the traditional multi-step process, potentially reducing costs and energy consumption.​

Metafuels: A Zurich-based aviation tech startup focused on developing and deploying proprietary sustainable fuel technologies, with an initial focus on synthetic aviation fuel. Their signature e-SAF, aerobrew, can replace conventional kerosene regardless of the size, type of aircraft, and short-haul or long-haul.

Aether Fuels: A climate technology firm that plans to set up SAF production plants in the United States. They have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Singapore Airlines Group to potentially supply sustainable aviation fuel, indicating their commitment to advancing SAF availability.

Brazil's SAF Spotlight

The surge of SAF activity in Brazil is largely being driven by regulation. Under the country’s new Fuels of the Future law (Lei nº 14.993/2024), airlines will be required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in domestic flights by using SAF—starting with a 1% reduction in 2027 and scaling up each year to 10% by 2037. This mandate is catalyzing investment across the SAF value chain, from crop production and feedstock processing to refining and distribution.

Brazil is emerging as a leader in SAF production, supported by a $1.1 billion investment from BNDES and Finep to advance local SAF and marine fuel projects. According to the IOCA, 11 SAF facilities have been announced in Brazil to date, including an ATJ facility by Abengoa that already produces conventional biofuels, with plans to upgrade parts of its production to SAF.

Brazil’s SAF production depends on feedstocks such as palm oil, macauba, soybean (HEFA), and sugarcane (ATJ). The country is expected to produce between 2.6 million and 3.2 million tonnes (3.2 billion to 4 billion liters) of SAF annually. Petrobras and Acelen are the major players, with Petrobras accounting for 1.6 million tonnes (1.97 billion liters) and Acelen contributing 0.8 million tonnes (1 billion liters) each year.

The future of sustainable aviation fuel

The adoption of sustainable aviation fuel is reshaping the global fuel landscape. While aviation is the most visible driver, the shift to SAF is already impacting players across the value chain. Fuel producers, logistics providers, and feedstock suppliers in agriculture and forestry are all beginning to reevaluate their roles in a market that is evolving quickly.

As regulatory mandates increase and investments accelerate, factors like feedstock availability, processing efficiency, and infrastructure readiness are becoming central to SAF’s scalability. Companies that want to stay relevant in this space will need to move fast. That means identifying viable technologies, understanding where they fit in the supply chain, and forming the right strategic partnerships.

How SOSA supports industry leaders

At SOSA, we work with airlines, energy companies, and global suppliers to identify and validate SAF and biofuel technologies that drive measurable business outcomes. We support leaders across agriculture and forestry as they explore new value streams tied to emerging fuel markets. Through our global network and proven expertise, we help organizations navigate shifting regulations, assess market opportunities, and implement innovation that delivers real results.